Is the SCO a missed opportunity for Pakistan?

ISLAMABAD: The gathering of economic and trade ministers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Islamabad on September 11, 2024, serves as a significant milestone ahead of the 25th Council of Heads of State Summit scheduled for October 2024.

Established in 2001 to enhance cooperation and maintain peace among its members, the SCO originally comprised China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

In 2017, Pakistan and India were admitted on the stipulation that their bilateral disputes would remain outside the SCO framework.

With the recent addition of Iran and Belarus, the organisation's membership has expanded to ten countries, alongside two observer states and fourteen dialogue partners, thereby enhancing its influence in regional trade and connectivity.

Despite being a relatively new entity facing internal conflicts among its members, the SCO has yet to attract the recognition it merits, even as it stands as the largest regional organisation globally by both area and population.

Covering 80% of the landmass of Eurasia, the SCO represents over three billion individuals, which accounts for approximately 40% of the world’s population. In 2023, its collective GDP reached $24.2 trillion, approximately one-quarter of the global GDP, with significant oil (20%) and gas (44%) reserves.

Initially focused on enhancing regional security and combating terrorism, the SCO has widened its agenda to promote trade connectivity among its members.

A primary initiative is energy collaboration, as the organisation comprises significant energy producers like Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, along with major consumers such as China, India, and Pakistan.

Significant progress has been achieved in railway infrastructure under China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Over 350 cities in various Asian and European countries are now interconnected through modern high-speed railways covering more than 11,000 kilometres.

The most ambitious connectivity project was intended to be the 3,000 km rail link between Kashgar in China and Gwadar in Pakistan.

Regrettably, advancements on this project, along with limited upgrades to the Karachi/Gwadar to Peshawar Main Line-1 (ML-1) railway, have stalled beyond preliminary feasibility studies.

Another key connectivity project that is finally being operationalised after considerable delays is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-kilometer multi-modal network encompassing road, rail, and sea routes connecting Russia to India through Iran.

This initiative has recently grown to include eleven additional members, including Central Asian nations but excluding Pakistan. Despite US sanctions, Iran is actively working to position itself as a connectivity hub and has launched a new trade route linking Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, facilitating substantial goods transport through a streamlined set of $30 transit documents issued by the International Road Transport Organisation.

Given its strategic location, Pakistan could serve as a pivotal hub for these communication networks. Located at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, it shares borders with key SCO countries such as China, India, and Iran.

Its three all-weather ports provide the most efficient maritime trade routes for SCO member states. However, inward-focused policies and ongoing security issues have prevented Pakistan from fully participating.

At the conclusion of the Ministerial Conference, the Commerce Ministers underscored the necessity of addressing protectionist trade measures, fostering innovation and cooperation in digital technologies, and strengthening trade relations within the SCO region.

They also advocated for reinforcing a non-discriminatory multilateral trading system based on WTO principles.

While it is evident that the mention of countering protectionism and enhancing the WTO was aimed at the United States, which continues to impose extra tariffs on China disregarding WTO guidelines, several SCO members should reevaluate their trade policies in response to this statement. For example, India and Pakistan, who are urging others to adhere to non-discrimination principles, are among the few globally that do not grant each other Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status.

Pakistan must acknowledge how its neighboring countries are establishing themselves as hubs for transit trade and energy connectivity.

Despite its advantageous geographical position, Pakistan remains isolated by failing to provide East-West transit routes for goods or energy pipelines.

Additionally, it is not fully utilizing the extensive road networks developed under the CPEC framework to enhance North-South connections. Pakistan needs to adopt regional integration strategies and harness its strategic advantages to unlock its full potential.

THE WRITER IS A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE PAKISTAN INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS AND PREVIOUSLY SERVED AS PAKISTAN'S AMBASSADOR TO THE WTO AND FAO'S REPRESENTATIVE TO THE UN.

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